ValueScreener

Lesson 3 of 6

Where the return on equity came from

A return on equity that rose fivefold while the margin behind it rose by under a fifth, and what the identity does and does not explain.

Javier Sanz, founder

By Javier Sanz

Founder of ValueScreener. Built Ninety Nine, a securities services provider, and sold it to a tier-one global bank; ran operations and internationalization at Alpaca, the brokerage API.

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In one minute

  • Return on equity is net margin times asset turnover times leverage, and the ten-year table has only the margin.
  • Dividing return on equity by net margin isolates the other two terms combined, about 1.68 in fiscal 2016 and about 7.78 in fiscal 2022.
  • Repurchasing shares shrinks equity, which is much smaller than total assets, so the same dollar amount is a larger share of it.

Apple's return on equity went from 35.62 percent in fiscal 2016 to 196.96 percent in fiscal 2022, more than five times over. Net margin in the same two years rose from 21.19 to 25.31 percent, under a fifth. The margin did not produce that return, and the table says which direction to look in without saying how much.

Return on equity against net margin, fiscal 2016 and fiscal 2022

  • Net margin, FY201621.19%
  • Return on equity, FY201635.62%
  • Net margin, FY202225.31%
  • Return on equity, FY2022 · 5.5x the FY2016 figure196.96%
Source: Apple Inc. FY2016 and FY2022 10-Ks, accession 0001628280-16-020309 and 0000320193-22-000108.

The identity, run backwards

Return on equity = net margin × asset turnover × financial leverage

Asset turnover is revenue divided by total assets, and financial leverage is total assets divided by equity. Only the margin term sits in the ten-year table, but the identity can be rearranged: divide return on equity by net margin and what remains is the other two terms combined.

What the table confirms

Debt to equity went from 0.68 to 2.61 over the same years, the funding side moving hard in the direction the residual requires. From fiscal 2020, this product's debt-to-equity figure carries lease obligations inside the debt term under ASC 842; on borrowings alone, fiscal 2025 was 1.34 rather than the 1.52 the table shows.

Two cautions belong next to that ratio. Debt to equity is not the leverage term in the identity: the identity's term is total assets over equity, and payables, accrued liabilities and deferred revenue fund assets too, without interest. And a rising ratio with equity falling is not the same story as one with debt rising. Both are visible in the filing, the debt note for borrowings and the statement of shareholders' equity for repurchases. Confirming which one happened is not the same as inferring it from the ratio.

Across the nine year-on-year changes in the table, debt to equity and return on equity moved in the same direction in all nine; net margin matched the direction of return on equity in only two, with fiscal 2023 flat at two decimals. That is co-movement, not cause, and it is consistent with a third factor moving both. It is useful anyway, because if the margin had driven the return, the margin is the row that would show nine matching turns. It does not.

Why a buyback does this without any borrowing

A repurchase removes cash from assets and the same amount from equity. Equity is much smaller than total assets, so it falls by a larger proportion, and return on equity rises with operations unchanged. The transaction is itemised in the statement of shareholders' equity, the fourth statement and the one readers skip.

Two definitional choices move the answer further: return on equity on closing equity differs from average equity for a company repurchasing through the year, and what counts as equity varies when minority interests or preferred stock are present. The table above uses closing equity throughout; the important property is using one convention consistently, not which one.

What none of this settles

Whether the repurchases were a good use of the money is not answered here. Return on equity rises when equity shrinks whether the cash was well spent or not. Whether a buyback created value depends on the price paid against what the shares were worth, and a ratio series cannot answer that. For banks, leverage is structural rather than chosen, and a high return on equity there carries none of this information.

Check yourself

Return on equity divided by net margin isolates which two terms of the identity?

  1. Net margin and asset turnover
  2. Asset turnover and financial leverage, combined
  3. Financial leverage alone

Show the answer

Answer: B.

Dividing out the margin leaves the other two terms multiplied together. The table cannot split that product between turnover and leverage.

Why does a share repurchase raise return on equity even with no new borrowing?

  1. It increases net income
  2. It shrinks equity, which is much smaller than total assets, by a larger proportion than assets fall
  3. It increases asset turnover directly

Show the answer

Answer: B.

Cash leaves both assets and equity by the same dollar amount. Equity is the smaller figure, so the same dollar reduction is a larger percentage fall in the denominator.

Debt to equity and return on equity moved in the same direction in nine of nine year-on-year changes. What does that establish?

  1. That leverage caused the return
  2. Co-movement, consistent with a third factor moving both, not a causal claim
  3. Nothing worth reading into

Show the answer

Answer: B.

Nine matching turns is a striking pattern and a reason to open a specific note in the filing. It is not a statistical result on a sample of one company, and it does not by itself establish cause.

Sources

  • Apple Inc., annual reports on Form 10-K, fiscal years 2016 and 2022, accession 0001628280-16-020309 and 0000320193-22-000108.
  • Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter, 1979, on return on equity, without undue leverage, as the test of managerial performance.
  • ASC 842, Leases: lease obligations came onto the balance sheet for fiscal years beginning after 15 December 2018, which changes what a debt figure contains from that point on.

What this leaves out

  • The residual computed above is the product of asset turnover and financial leverage together. This lesson does not know the split and does not estimate it.
  • Return on equity here uses closing equity for all ten years; a series built on average equity would show different levels.
  • The debt-to-equity figure changes basis in fiscal 2020 under ASC 842; the two halves of the decade are not computed the same way.
  • The co-movement described is a count of directions across one company's filed figures, not a statistical result, and implies no cause.
  • Nothing here is a view on Apple, on its capital allocation, or on any security.

The method, not the running of it

Lesson 3 of 6 of A company end to end. It teaches how the step is run. It does not run it on anything you own, and it cannot tell you the day a reason you bought on stops being true.

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