Amphenol Corporation (APH): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Amphenol Corporation would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 24.6% in FY2025; between 16.5% and 24.6% over 8 filed years, median 18.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: 31.8% in FY2025; between 16.3% and 31.8% over 10 filed years, median 25.0%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 2.5% in FY2025; between 2.2% and 4.2% over 10 filed years, median 3.3%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- EV to EBIT: 30.26x in FY2025; between 16.38x and 30.26x over 8 filed years, median 25.65x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 40.46x in FY2025; between 21.05x and 42.64x over 10 filed years, median 32.68x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 36.9% in FY2025; between 31.0% and 36.9% over 10 filed years, median 32.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 25.4% in FY2025; between 19.1% and 25.4% over 10 filed years, median 20.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Net debt to EBITDA: 0.73x in FY2025; between 0.73x and 1.54x over 8 filed years, median 1.16x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 21.9% in FY2025; between 8.9% and 21.9% over 10 filed years, median 10.9%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: 1.1% in FY2025; between -1.5% and 1.8% over 9 filed years, median -0.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Amphenol Corporation's own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 1.5x
Today 1.2x. Replayed over 8 filed years, it held in every one.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 51.71%. Replayed over 9 filed years, it would have broken in 1; most recently FY2023, at -0.54% (10-K, filed 2024-02-07).
Return on Invested Capital stays at or above 19.7%
Today 24.58%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 1.5x.
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which return on invested capital fell below 19.7%.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 2 met, 28 not met, 0 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: ROIC at or above WACC; Cash-covered dividend.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
No card. 30 free days, and nothing is charged unless you choose a plan.
How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.