ASML Holding N.V. (ASML): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own ASML Holding N.V. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 83.8% in FY2025; between 14.9% and 92.1% over 10 filed years, median 47.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: 49.0% in FY2025; between 15.8% and 63.8% over 10 filed years, median 33.3%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 52.8% in FY2025; between 44.4% and 52.8% over 10 filed years, median 49.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 34.6% in FY2025; between 23.6% and 36.3% over 10 filed years, median 29.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Net debt to EBITDA: -0.69x in FY2025; between -0.81x and 0.31x over 10 filed years, median -0.24x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 18.5% in FY2025; between 3.8% and 22.3% over 10 filed years, median 17.9%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from ASML Holding N.V.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 0.28x
Today 0.22x. Replayed over 9 filed years, it would have broken in 5; most recently FY2023, at 0.36x (20-F, filed 2024-02-14).
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 15.58%. Replayed over 10 filed years, it held in every one.
Return on Invested Capital stays at or above 67%
Today 83.81%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 0.28x.
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which return on invested capital fell below 67%.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 4 met, 24 not met, 2 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: High returns and growth; ROIC at or above WACC; High return on tangibles; Cash-covered dividend.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
No card. 30 free days, and nothing is charged unless you choose a plan.
How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.