BlackRock, Inc. (BLK): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own BlackRock, Inc. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on equity: 9.9% in FY2025; between 9.9% and 15.7% over 9 filed years, median 13.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 2.1% in FY2025; between 2.1% and 4.5% over 10 filed years, median 3.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 30.31x in FY2025; between 14.83x and 30.31x over 10 filed years, median 21.55x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 50.7% in FY2021; between 49.1% and 51.0% over 6 filed years, median 50.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 29.1% in FY2025; between 29.1% and 59.2% over 10 filed years, median 38.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 8.4% in FY2025; between -5.0% and 9.6% over 10 filed years, median 6.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: 6.1% in FY2025; between -3.2% and 6.1% over 10 filed years, median -1.3%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from BlackRock, Inc.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 89.28%. Replayed over 3 filed years, it would have broken in 1; most recently FY2023, at -0.44% (10-K, filed 2025-02-25).
Dividend Rate stays at or above $22.69
Today $22.92. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
Free Cash Flow Yield stays at or above 1.58%
Today 1.97%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $22.69.
- A filed year in which free cash flow yield fell below 1.58%.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 0 met, 23 not met, 7 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.