CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on equity: -3.7% in FY2026; between -199.8% and 3.1% over 8 filed years, median -11.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 1.2% in FY2026; between 0.2% and 2.9% over 7 filed years, median 1.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 74.7% in FY2026; between 35.5% and 75.2% over 10 filed years, median 73.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: -6.1% in FY2026; between -171.7% and -0.6% over 10 filed years, median -10.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 40.6% in FY2026; between 40.6% and 94.1% over 5 filed years, median 65.0%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: 2.4% in FY2026; between 0.5% and 47.1% over 6 filed years, median 3.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 0.24x
Today 0.19x. Replayed over 5 filed years, it would have broken in 2; most recently FY2024, at 0.34x (10-K, filed 2024-03-07).
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 21.71%. Replayed over 8 filed years, it held in every one.
Current Ratio stays at or above 1.42x
Today 1.77x. Replayed over 7 filed years, it held in every one.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 0.24x.
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which current ratio fell below 1.42x.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 0 met, 21 not met, 9 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.