Deere & Company (DE): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Deere & Company would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on equity: 19.4% in FY2025; between 19.4% and 46.7% over 10 filed years, median 25.9%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 4.9% in FY2025; between 2.1% and 11.2% over 10 filed years, median 5.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 24.95x in FY2025; between 10.43x and 26.00x over 10 filed years, median 18.20x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 17.5% in FY2024; between 9.8% and 21.2% over 9 filed years, median 12.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 5.2% in FY2025; between -3.5% and 12.1% over 10 filed years, median 4.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: -1.9% in FY2025; between -5.8% and 2.1% over 10 filed years, median -2.0%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Deere & Company's own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Dividend Rate stays at or above $6.41
Today $6.48. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
Free Cash Flow Yield stays at or above 2.76%
Today 3.45%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $6.41.
- A filed year in which free cash flow yield fell below 2.76%.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 1 met, 21 not met, 8 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: Cash-covered dividend.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.