GE Aerospace (GE): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own GE Aerospace would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on equity: 46.6% in FY2025; between -72.2% and 46.6% over 10 filed years, median 5.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 2.2% in FY2025; between -2.6% and 7.9% over 10 filed years, median 2.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 37.84x in FY2025; between 12.18x and 1043.00x over 6 filed years, median 32.84x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 20.3% in FY2020; between 20.3% and 47.7% over 5 filed years, median 25.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: -9.6% in FY2025; between -21.7% and -2.5% over 10 filed years, median -8.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: -2.4% in FY2025; between -21.6% and 0.4% over 9 filed years, median -0.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from GE Aerospace's own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 1.44x
Today 1.15x. Replayed over 7 filed years, it would have broken in 2; most recently FY2020, at 2.2x (10-K, filed 2021-02-12).
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 18.48%. Replayed over 9 filed years, it would have broken in 6; most recently FY2022, at -48.4% (10-K, filed 2023-02-10).
Dividend Rate stays at or above $1.86
Today $1.88. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 1.44x.
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $1.86.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 0 met, 26 not met, 4 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.