The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on equity: 13.7% in FY2025; between 5.2% and 19.7% over 10 filed years, median 9.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 17.13x in FY2025; between 6.43x and 28.28x over 10 filed years, median 12.77x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 5.5% in FY2025; between -4.7% and 14.0% over 10 filed years, median 3.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: -4.8% in FY2025; between -6.0% and 0.7% over 10 filed years, median -3.9%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 8.92%. Replayed over 9 filed years, it would have broken in 3; most recently FY2023, at -2.35% (10-K, filed 2024-02-23).
Dividend Rate stays at or above $19.80
Today $20.00. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $19.80.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 0 met, 19 not met, 11 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
No card. 30 free days, and nothing is charged unless you choose a plan.
How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.