Intel Corporation (INTC): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Intel Corporation would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 13.7% in FY2021; between 13.7% and 18.7% over 3 filed years, median 17.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: -0.2% in FY2025; between -18.9% and 28.2% over 10 filed years, median 14.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: -3.0% in FY2025; between -18.0% and 10.8% over 10 filed years, median 4.9%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- EV to EBIT: 2729.46x in FY2023; between 9.72x and 2729.46x over 5 filed years, median 13.35x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 125.62x in FY2023; between 9.53x and 125.62x over 8 filed years, median 13.19x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 34.8% in FY2025; between 32.7% and 62.3% over 10 filed years, median 55.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: -4.2% in FY2025; between -22.0% and 32.9% over 10 filed years, median 23.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Net debt to EBITDA: 5.31x in FY2023; between 0.91x and 5.31x over 5 filed years, median 1.18x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: -7.5% in FY2025; between -7.5% and 7.1% over 10 filed years, median 2.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: 5.8% in FY2025; between -5.4% and 5.8% over 10 filed years, median -0.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Intel Corporation's own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Current Ratio stays at or above 1.62x
Today 2.02x. Replayed over 11 filed years, it would have broken in 4; most recently FY2024, at 1.33x (10-K, filed 2025-01-31).
Gross Margin stays at or above 27.8%
Today 34.77%. Replayed over 11 filed years, it held in every one.
Altman Z-Score stays at or above 3.02
Today 3.77. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which current ratio fell below 1.62x.
- A filed year in which gross margin fell below 27.8%.
- A filed year in which altman z-score fell below 3.02.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 0 met, 20 not met, 10 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.