JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own JPMorgan Chase & Co. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on equity: 15.7% in FY2025; between 9.6% and 17.0% over 10 filed years, median 13.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 16.09x in FY2025; between 10.31x and 16.95x over 10 filed years, median 12.57x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 8.8% in FY2025; between -2.7% and 8.9% over 10 filed years, median 4.9%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: -3.4% in FY2025; between -5.4% and -0.9% over 10 filed years, median -2.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 2.75%. Replayed over 10 filed years, it held in every one.
Dividend Rate stays at or above $6.53
Today $6.60. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $6.53.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 0 met, 16 not met, 14 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.