Mastercard Incorporated (MA): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Mastercard Incorporated would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 89.5% in FY2025; between 58.3% and 98.4% over 7 filed years, median 77.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: 193.5% in FY2025; between 71.6% and 198.5% over 10 filed years, median 128.3%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 3.3% in FY2025; between 1.9% and 3.9% over 10 filed years, median 3.0%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- EV to EBIT: 27.86x in FY2025; between 27.86x and 44.86x over 7 filed years, median 31.81x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 34.56x in FY2025; between 27.98x and 56.03x over 10 filed years, median 36.83x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 57.6% in FY2025; between 48.7% and 57.6% over 10 filed years, median 54.3%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Net debt to EBITDA: 0.46x in FY2025; between 0.23x and 0.67x over 7 filed years, median 0.53x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 16.5% in FY2025; between 9.6% and 16.5% over 10 filed years, median 11.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: -2.3% in FY2025; between -3.2% and -1.4% over 10 filed years, median -2.3%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Mastercard Incorporated's own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 3.2x
Today 2.56x. Replayed over 7 filed years, it held in every one.
Return on Invested Capital stays at or above 71.6%
Today 89.54%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
Dividend Rate stays at or above $3.44
Today $3.48. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 3.2x.
- A filed year in which return on invested capital fell below 71.6%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $3.44.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 3 met, 26 not met, 1 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: ROIC at or above WACC; High return on tangibles; Cash-covered dividend.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.