Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Meta Platforms, Inc. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on equity: 27.8% in FY2025; between 17.3% and 34.1% over 10 filed years, median 24.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 2.7% in FY2025; between 2.7% and 5.9% over 10 filed years, median 3.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 28.10x in FY2025; between 14.01x and 32.97x over 10 filed years, median 25.80x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 82.0% in FY2025; between 78.3% and 86.6% over 10 filed years, median 81.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 41.4% in FY2025; between 24.8% and 49.7% over 10 filed years, median 40.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 18.5% in FY2025; between 18.4% and 51.5% over 10 filed years, median 35.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: -1.5% in FY2025; between -5.5% and 2.5% over 10 filed years, median -1.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Meta Platforms, Inc.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 22.17%. Replayed over 10 filed years, it would have broken in 1; most recently FY2022, at -1.12% (10-K, filed 2023-02-02).
Current Ratio stays at or above 2.08x
Today 2.6x. Replayed over 11 filed years, it held in every one.
Dividend Rate stays at or above $2.07
Today $2.10. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which current ratio fell below 2.08x.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $2.07.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 1 met, 23 not met, 6 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: Cash-covered dividend.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.