NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own NVIDIA Corporation would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 70.0% in FY2026; between 18.7% and 87.2% over 6 filed years, median 64.9%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: 76.3% in FY2026; between 19.8% and 91.9% over 10 filed years, median 38.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 2.1% in FY2026; between 0.8% and 2.1% over 5 filed years, median 1.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- EV to EBIT: 35.29x in FY2026; between 26.61x and 122.89x over 8 filed years, median 48.88x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 38.30x in FY2026; between 24.13x and 119.76x over 10 filed years, median 50.88x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 71.1% in FY2026; between 56.9% and 75.0% over 10 filed years, median 62.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 60.4% in FY2026; between 15.7% and 62.4% over 10 filed years, median 32.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Net debt to EBITDA: 0.01x in FY2026; between -2.56x and 1.50x over 8 filed years, median 0.20x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 66.9% in FY2026; between 11.6% and 66.9% over 10 filed years, median 25.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: -1.2% in FY2026; between -2.6% and 1.5% over 9 filed years, median -1.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from NVIDIA Corporation's own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 0.09x
Today 0.07x. Replayed over 8 filed years, it would have broken in 7; most recently FY2025, at 0.13x (10-K, filed 2025-02-26).
Return on Invested Capital stays at or above 56%
Today 70%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
Dividend Rate stays at or above $0.99
Today $1.00. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 0.09x.
- A filed year in which return on invested capital fell below 56%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $0.99.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 8 met, 22 not met, 0 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: Low PEG, low debt (Peter Lynch); High returns and growth; Gross margin, turnover (Robert Novy-Marx); ROIC at or above WACC; Z-score and coverage (Edward Altman); High returns, low debt; High return on tangibles; Cash-covered dividend.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.