Oracle Corporation (ORCL): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Oracle Corporation would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on equity: 40.2% in FY2026; between 7.7% and 792.5% over 9 filed years, median 60.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: -3.6% in FY2026; between -3.6% and 6.9% over 10 filed years, median 4.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 38.73x in FY2026; between 17.04x and 54.96x over 10 filed years, median 30.71x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 30.6% in FY2026; between 25.7% and 37.6% over 10 filed years, median 32.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 10.7% in FY2026; between 0.4% and 10.7% over 10 filed years, median 2.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: 1.7% in FY2026; between -11.9% and 2.1% over 10 filed years, median -1.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Oracle Corporation's own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 4.92x
Today 3.94x. Replayed over 1 filed years, it held in every one.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 17.35%. Replayed over 10 filed years, it would have broken in 1; most recently FY2020, at -1.11% (10-K, filed 2020-06-22).
Dividend Rate stays at or above $1.98
Today $2.00. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 4.92x.
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $1.98.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 0 met, 29 not met, 1 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.