Pfizer Inc. (PFE): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Pfizer Inc. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 24.2% in FY2022; between 7.8% and 24.2% over 4 filed years, median 15.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: 9.0% in FY2025; between 2.4% and 32.8% over 10 filed years, median 16.0%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 6.4% in FY2025; between 2.9% and 8.9% over 10 filed years, median 6.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- EV to EBIT: 20.46x in FY2025; between 9.24x and 72.41x over 7 filed years, median 20.40x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 18.31x in FY2025; between 9.37x and 77.81x over 10 filed years, median 18.56x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 74.3% in FY2025; between 58.1% and 80.3% over 10 filed years, median 75.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 8.5% in FY2025; between -4.6% and 14.0% over 9 filed years, median 7.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: 0.2% in FY2025; between -6.4% and 1.4% over 9 filed years, median -0.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Pfizer Inc.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 0.98x
Today 0.78x. Replayed over 7 filed years, it held in every one.
Current Ratio stays at or above 0.93x
Today 1.16x. Replayed over 10 filed years, it would have broken in 2; most recently FY2023, at 0.91x (10-K, filed 2024-02-22).
Dividend Rate stays at or above $1.70
Today $1.72. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 0.98x.
- A filed year in which current ratio fell below 0.93x.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $1.70.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 0 met, 27 not met, 3 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.