The Procter & Gamble Company (PG): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own The Procter & Gamble Company would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 19.8% in FY2026; between 19.7% and 20.9% over 5 filed years, median 20.0%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: 29.7% in FY2026; between 8.3% and 31.6% over 10 filed years, median 29.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 4.3% in FY2026; between 3.6% and 5.4% over 10 filed years, median 4.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- EV to EBIT: 19.26x in FY2026; between 19.26x and 23.27x over 7 filed years, median 21.21x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 22.15x in FY2026; between 15.59x and 76.68x over 10 filed years, median 24.50x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 50.2% in FY2026; between 47.4% and 51.4% over 10 filed years, median 50.0%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 22.7% in FY2026; between 8.1% and 24.3% over 10 filed years, median 22.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Net debt to EBITDA: 1.09x in FY2026; between 1.03x and 1.30x over 7 filed years, median 1.11x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 2.7% in FY2026; between -4.5% and 4.4% over 10 filed years, median 2.9%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: -1.3% in FY2026; between -4.4% and 3.4% over 10 filed years, median -1.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from The Procter & Gamble Company's own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 0.81x
Today 0.65x. Replayed over 7 filed years, it held in every one.
Return on Invested Capital stays at or above 15.8%
Today 19.76%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
Dividend Rate stays at or above $4.31
Today $4.35. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 0.81x.
- A filed year in which return on invested capital fell below 15.8%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $4.31.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 4 met, 26 not met, 0 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: ROIC at or above WACC; Near the 52-week low; High return on tangibles; Cash-covered dividend.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
No card. 30 free days, and nothing is charged unless you choose a plan.
How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.