Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Palantir Technologies Inc. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on equity: 22.0% in FY2025; between -76.6% and 22.0% over 6 filed years, median -4.3%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 0.5% in FY2025; between -1.3% and 1.8% over 6 filed years, median 0.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 282.14x in FY2025; between 190.78x and 398.05x over 3 filed years, median 282.14x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 82.4% in FY2025; between 67.4% and 82.4% over 8 filed years, median 78.3%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 31.6% in FY2025; between -107.4% and 31.6% over 8 filed years, median -17.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 32.6% in FY2025; between 30.2% and 32.6% over 3 filed years, median 31.0%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: 4.7% in FY2025; between 4.7% and 96.4% over 7 filed years, median 7.3%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Palantir Technologies Inc.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 56.18%. Replayed over 7 filed years, it held in every one.
Current Ratio stays at or above 5.69x
Today 7.11x. Replayed over 6 filed years, it would have broken in 4; most recently FY2023, at 5.55x (10-K, filed 2024-02-20).
Free Cash Flow Yield stays at or above 0.33%
Today 0.41%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which current ratio fell below 5.69x.
- A filed year in which free cash flow yield fell below 0.33%.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 0 met, 23 not met, 7 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.