Toyota Motor Corporation (TM): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Toyota Motor Corporation would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 5.4% in FY2025; between 3.7% and 6.5% over 8 filed years, median 5.0%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: 13.3% in FY2025; between 8.7% and 14.4% over 10 filed years, median 10.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 18.0% in FY2019; between 17.6% and 20.4% over 4 filed years, median 18.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 10.0% in FY2025; between 7.2% and 11.9% over 10 filed years, median 8.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Net debt to EBITDA: 4.31x in FY2025; between 3.31x and 5.44x over 8 filed years, median 4.26x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 10.0% in FY2025; between -0.8% and 10.0% over 10 filed years, median 5.3%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: -2.5% in FY2019; between -2.8% and -0.5% over 4 filed years, median -2.3%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Toyota Motor Corporation's own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 1.36x
Today 1.09x. Replayed over 5 filed years, it held in every one.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 6.52%. Replayed over 5 filed years, it would have broken in 1; most recently FY2021, at -8.88% (20-F, filed 2021-06-24).
Return on Invested Capital stays at or above 4.32%
Today 5.4%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 1.36x.
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which return on invested capital fell below 4.32%.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 2 met, 24 not met, 4 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: Owner earnings yield; Cheapest quarter on P/E (David Dreman).
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.