Visa Inc. (V): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Visa Inc. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 42.5% in FY2025; between 24.9% and 42.5% over 6 filed years, median 38.0%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: 52.9% in FY2025; between 18.2% and 52.9% over 10 filed years, median 33.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 60.0% in FY2025; between 52.3% and 66.2% over 10 filed years, median 64.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Net debt to EBITDA: 0.35x in FY2025; between 0.21x and 0.56x over 6 filed years, median 0.36x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 12.9% in FY2025; between 9.3% and 12.9% over 10 filed years, median 10.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Visa Inc.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 0.86x
Today 0.69x. Replayed over 6 filed years, it held in every one.
Return on Invested Capital stays at or above 34%
Today 42.48%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
Dividend Rate stays at or above $2.65
Today $2.68. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 0.86x.
- A filed year in which return on invested capital fell below 34%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $2.65.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 2 met, 26 not met, 2 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: ROIC at or above WACC; High return on tangibles.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.