Welltower Inc. (WELL): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Welltower Inc. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on equity: 2.3% in FY2025; between 0.8% and 8.6% over 10 filed years, median 3.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 1.4% in FY2025; between 1.4% and 5.9% over 10 filed years, median 3.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 18.7% in FY2025; between 2.1% and 26.9% over 10 filed years, median 9.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: 11.6% in FY2025; between 1.7% and 17.4% over 10 filed years, median 5.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Welltower Inc.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 35.63%. Replayed over 10 filed years, it would have broken in 1; most recently FY2020, at -10.06% (10-K, filed 2021-02-10).
Dividend Rate stays at or above $3.36
Today $3.40. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
Free Cash Flow Yield stays at or above 0.92%
Today 1.15%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $3.36.
- A filed year in which free cash flow yield fell below 0.92%.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 0 met, 20 not met, 10 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.