Inflation outruns the yield on 0 of the 14 Treasury maturities

The rule: The maturity's latest par yield is below the latest year-on-year change in the US consumer price index. This is a BACKWARD-LOOKING real yield: a nominal par yield less the inflation that has already happened, which is the newest year-on-year change in the consumer price index we hold. It is not a market-implied real yield, which is a published price and is not something we carry, and the two are never one figure. The yield's close day and the index's month are different days and both are stated below. Read from the US Treasury's daily par yields and FRED's daily ICE BofA option-adjusted spreads, closes up to 2026-11-06: 14 of the 14 yields in this rule's range could be measured. No yield in the range was left out. The yields are the par yields of 2026-11-06; the inflation is the change in the consumer price index over the twelve months to 2026-09-01, which is the newest month held. Those are two different days and the gap between them is the lag the index is published with.