Value investing · Course 25 of 39 · Judging a business
Competitive strategy
Moats are asserted more often than measured. This course measures them: captivity from disclosed retention, pricing power from a disclosed price split.
The previous course names the kinds of advantage a business can have. This one asks a harder question: how do you know, from a filing, that a particular company has one.
Most answers to that question are assertions. A brand is called a moat because it is famous. Scale is called a moat because the company is large. Switching costs are called a moat because leaving sounds inconvenient. None of those is a measurement, and a thesis built on one breaks without warning because nothing in it was ever checkable.
So this course does three things. It sets out the frame properly, which means using Porter's five forces to ask five questions rather than to reach a verdict, and separating a barrier to entry from merely doing something better. It measures two advantages from disclosed figures: customer captivity from a published retention rate, and pricing power from a company's own split of revenue growth into price and volume. And it deals with duration, which is the part every valuation depends on and almost nobody states.
It ends where it should: with the four recorded ways a moat ends, one of them documented in a shareholder letter written while it was happening.
You need business-models-and-moats and quality-and-returns first.
What you will be able to do
Run the five forces as a checklist and refuse to score it. Tell a barrier from an advantage and say why only one of them persists. Read captivity and pricing power out of disclosures instead of asserting them. Solve for how many years of excess return an assumption set implies. And name what would end it.
The test, not the verdict
Competitive strategy is 8 lessons on the tests and where their lines sit. Whether a company you hold clears one of them is a separate question that needs its filings read, and nothing on these pages has read them.
Related
- Business models and moats is the course before this one, which names the kinds of moat this one tries to measure.
- Incremental return on capital measures the return that a durable advantage is supposed to produce and a competitor is supposed to compete away.
See our methodology for how the product reads a filing and what it refuses to compute.