Lesson 2 of 8
The two series we hold
A 10-year par yield and a consumer price index, ingested nightly and dated. What each series measures, and the four questions neither of them answers.
By Javier Sanz
Founder of ValueScreener. Built Ninety Nine, a securities services provider, and sold it to a tier-one global bank; ran operations and internationalization at Alpaca, the brokerage API.
Who writes thisEditorial processLinkedIn (opens in a new tab)X (opens in a new tab)
In one minute
- Two published series are ingested nightly here: a US 10-year par yield and the consumer price index. Both are dated readings, not signals.
- A price of credit and a price level are different facts, and neither is a measure of how much credit was created.
- Everything a reader can see about credit conditions from these two numbers is less than most readers assume.
ValueScreener stores exactly two macro series, because they are the two the discounted cash flow and the real-return arithmetic need. Knowing precisely what they are is worth more than any inference drawn from them.
The stored 10-year par yield, first reading of each month
- 10-year par yield, 2026
Show the numbers
| 10-year par yield, 2026 | |
|---|---|
| Jan | 4.19% |
| Feb | 4.29% |
| Mar | 4.05% |
| Apr | 4.33% |
| May | 4.39% |
| Jun | 4.47% |
| Jul | 4.48% |
| Aug | 4.70% |
| Sep | 4.79% |
What the first series is
A US Treasury 10-year par yield, one reading per trading session. The stored history runs from 17 December 2025 to 15 September 2026, which is 187 readings. Across that window the lowest stored reading is 3.97 percent and the highest is 5.00 percent, and the mean of the stored readings is 4.408 percent.
It is the yield on one maturity of one borrower, and that borrower is the government. It is not the rate any company in the covered universe pays. A company's own cost of borrowing is in its own filing, and the next lesson is about finding it there.
What the second series is
The US consumer price index for all urban consumers, all items, seasonally adjusted, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The stored history is monthly, from January 2014 to August 2026, which is 151 readings. The publisher is named rather than the relay, because that is what makes the figure checkable against a public table.
An index is a level, not a rate. A rate of change has to be computed from two readings, and which two you pick changes the answer. August 2026 stood at 334.131 against August 2025 at 323.291, which is 3.35 percent over those twelve months. The same calculation run on August 2021 and August 2022 gives 8.22 percent, and on August 2019 and August 2020 gives 1.28 percent.
The four questions neither series answers
How much credit was created, and against what. Who borrowed it and on what terms. Where in an economy the borrowing went. And what any of it does next.
A reader who wants a serious published measure of credit conditions is looking for something like the credit-to-gross-domestic-product gap the Bank for International Settlements publishes, which the living-school course covers. That is a different and much larger object than a par yield, it comes with the publisher's own extensive caveats, and it is not stored here.
Why these two are stored at all
Not as a cycle indicator. The yield is stored because a discounted cash flow needs a risk-free rate and an undated one is not a rate. The index is stored because a nominal figure and a real figure are different claims and the difference has to be computed from something published. Both are dated, and the product reports the freshness of a stored reading separately from the time a figure was computed from it, because a recompute is not a fresh reading.
Check yourself
What does the stored 10-year yield measure?
- The average rate paid by companies in the covered universe
- The yield on one maturity of one borrower, the US government
- The quantity of credit outstanding
Show the answer
Answer: B.
It is a par yield on a single maturity. A company's own borrowing cost is in that company's own filing.The consumer price index stood at 334.131 in August 2026 and 323.291 in August 2025. What does that pair of numbers give you?
- An inflation rate of 334.131 percent
- A twelve-month change of 3.35 percent, which depends entirely on which two readings were chosen
- The real return on a portfolio
Show the answer
Answer: B.
An index is a level. Any rate has to be computed from two readings, and a different pair gives a different answer: the same calculation on August 2021 and August 2022 gives 8.22 percent.Which of these can be read off these two series?
- How much credit was created and against what collateral
- Where in the economy borrowing went
- None of them, which is why the theory in the cycle track cannot be tested with these two numbers
Show the answer
Answer: C.
A par yield and a price index are a price of one borrower's money and a price of a basket. The quantity and direction of credit are not in either.Sources
- US consumer price index for all urban consumers, all items, seasonally adjusted, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly readings from January 2014 to August 2026 as stored by the product and read on 16 September 2026.
- US Treasury 10-year par yield, daily readings from 17 December 2025 to 15 September 2026 as stored by the product and read on 16 September 2026.
What this leaves out
- This is a heterodox tradition. The mainstream account of the same phenomenon differs, and nothing here is a forecast or a view on any security.
- The stored yield history begins on 17 December 2025. Nothing about earlier periods can be read from it, and the window is short enough that its mean and range describe the window rather than anything general.
- A seasonally adjusted series is a published estimate, revised by its publisher. The readings above are those stored on the date given.