Morgan Stanley (MS): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Morgan Stanley would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on equity: 15.1% in FY2025; between 7.9% and 15.1% over 10 filed years, median 11.0%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 17.39x in FY2025; between 8.38x and 18.00x over 10 filed years, median 14.14x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 7.7% in FY2025; between -1.6% and 11.5% over 10 filed years, median 6.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: -1.2% in FY2025; between -5.6% and 11.7% over 10 filed years, median -3.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Morgan Stanley's own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 14.38%. Replayed over 10 filed years, it would have broken in 2; most recently FY2022, at -10.19% (10-K, filed 2023-02-24).
Dividend Rate stays at or above $4.55
Today $4.60. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $4.55.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 0 met, 17 not met, 13 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.