Micron Technology, Inc. (MU): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Micron Technology, Inc. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 78.7% in FY2026; between 1.5% and 78.7% over 7 filed years, median 13.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: 61.4% in FY2026; between -13.2% and 61.4% over 10 filed years, median 16.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 5.4% in FY2026; between -8.0% and 13.1% over 10 filed years, median 3.9%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- EV to EBIT: 10.71x in FY2026; between 6.65x and 88.91x over 7 filed years, median 13.50x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 12.89x in FY2026; between 4.58x and 136.53x over 9 filed years, median 12.89x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 80.7% in FY2026; between -9.1% and 80.7% over 10 filed years, median 40.6%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 74.6% in FY2026; between -37.0% and 74.6% over 10 filed years, median 27.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Net debt to EBITDA: -0.28x in FY2026; between -0.28x and 3.33x over 8 filed years, median 0.02x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 36.9% in FY2026; between -12.6% and 36.9% over 10 filed years, median 10.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: 1.6% in FY2026; between -7.0% and 11.4% over 10 filed years, median 0.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Micron Technology, Inc.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Debt to Equity stays at or below 0.06x
Today 0.05x. Replayed over 9 filed years, it would have broken in 8; most recently FY2025, at 0.34x (10-K, filed 2025-10-03).
Return on Invested Capital stays at or above 62.9%
Today 78.67%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
Dividend Rate stays at or above $0.59
Today $0.60. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which debt to equity rose above 0.06x.
- A filed year in which return on invested capital fell below 62.9%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $0.59.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 9 met, 21 not met, 0 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: Earnings yield and ROIC (Joel Greenblatt); Low PEG, low debt (Peter Lynch); High returns and growth; ROIC at or above WACC; Z-score and coverage (Edward Altman); Cash-covered dividend; Cash-flow yield and ROIC; Clean books, high ROIC; Cheapest quarter on P/E (David Dreman).
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.