Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Dell Technologies Inc. would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 36.5% in FY2026; between -0.5% and 36.5% over 7 filed years, median 23.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: 131.1% in FY2021; between -24.3% and 131.1% over 3 filed years, median -8.8%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 10.9% in FY2026; between 1.8% and 36.2% over 7 filed years, median 10.9%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- EV to EBIT: 12.15x in FY2026; between 9.30x and 26.67x over 7 filed years, median 15.34x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 13.18x in FY2026; between 8.09x and 18.77x over 7 filed years, median 13.18x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 20.0% in FY2026; between 20.0% and 27.6% over 10 filed years, median 22.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 7.2% in FY2026; between -3.8% and 7.2% over 10 filed years, median 4.4%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Net debt to EBITDA: 1.85x in FY2026; between 1.85x and 5.80x over 8 filed years, median 2.38x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 5.5% in FY2026; between -0.5% and 11.2% over 8 filed years, median 7.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: -5.0% in FY2026; between -5.0% and 3.1% over 6 filed years, median -2.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Dell Technologies Inc.'s own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 18.8%. Replayed over 9 filed years, it would have broken in 2; most recently FY2024, at -13.56% (10-K, filed 2024-03-25).
Return on Invested Capital stays at or above 29.2%
Today 36.53%. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
Dividend Rate stays at or above $2.49
Today $2.52. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which return on invested capital fell below 29.2%.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $2.49.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 2 met, 22 not met, 6 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: ROIC at or above WACC; Cash-covered dividend.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.