Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO): investment thesis checklist
What a value investor writing down why they own Southern Copper Corporation would be relying on, read from its filings: the figures that have carried the business, the lines a reader might set on them, and the published tests it meets today. A list to write against, not a view on the company.
1. The figures the case would rest on
- Return on invested capital: 27.2% in FY2024; between 13.1% and 28.7% over 3 filed years, median 27.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Return on equity: 39.4% in FY2025; between 12.0% and 41.9% over 10 filed years, median 28.2%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Free cash flow yield: 2.9% in FY2025; between 2.9% and 7.3% over 7 filed years, median 4.1%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- EV to EBIT: 13.65x in FY2024; between 8.39x and 13.68x over 3 filed years, median 13.65x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Price to earnings: 27.71x in FY2025; between 13.68x and 48.55x over 10 filed years, median 24.25x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Gross margin: 60.1% in FY2025; between 31.6% and 64.4% over 10 filed years, median 51.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Operating margin: 52.2% in FY2025; between 29.1% and 55.5% over 10 filed years, median 41.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Net debt to EBITDA: 0.58x in FY2024; between 0.58x and 1.72x over 3 filed years, median 0.65x. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Revenue growth, 5-year CAGR: 10.9% in FY2025; between -4.6% and 15.2% over 10 filed years, median 7.7%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
- Share count change: 3.0% in FY2025; between -1.0% and 3.0% over 6 filed years, median 0.5%. Does the thesis need it to stay inside that range?
2. What must stay true: guardrails a reader might set
Each line is drafted from Southern Copper Corporation's own current figure, never from a level we think a business should clear, and replayed over its filed years. They are a reader's to keep, edit or drop.
Revenue Growth 1Y stays at or above 0%
Today 17.38%. Replayed over 10 filed years, it would have broken in 2; most recently FY2023, at -1.51% (10-K, filed 2024-02-29).
Current Ratio stays at or above 3.11x
Today 3.89x. Replayed over 11 filed years, it would have broken in 7; most recently FY2024, at 2.75x (10-K, filed 2025-03-03).
Dividend Rate stays at or above $4.35
Today $4.40. This indicator depends on inputs (market price, multi-statement composites) whose history is not deep enough to re-derive it with the same formula as the live value, so no honest retro-test exists for it.
3. What would break it
- A filed year in which revenue growth 1y fell below 0%.
- A filed year in which current ratio fell below 3.11x.
- A filed year in which dividend rate fell below $4.35.
4. The published tests it meets today
Of 30 tests value investors published: 2 met, 22 not met, 6 we could not complete. Counts, never a score.
Meets: High return on tangibles; Cash-covered dividend.
What this cannot tell you
What the numbers say today, not the day one stops being true. The reasons are not written down.
An account adds
One email the night a number you wrote down breaks. Silence otherwise.
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How this is computedA computation on accounts filed with the SEC, not a recommendation and not advice. Past filings do not indicate future results. Risk disclaimer.