Apple Inc.: would “revenue grows by at least 5 percent a year” have held?
It would have broken in 3 years of 9: FY2019, FY2023, FY2024.
On the newest filing, FY2025 lodged 2025-10-31, it stands +1.43 pts from the line, at 6.43%.
Year by year, against the filings
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth | On the year | Against 5% | Clear by | Read from |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | n/a | n/a | not filed | n/a | 2016-10-26 10-K 0001628280-16-020309 |
| FY2017 | 6.30% | n/a | held | +1.30 pts | 2017-11-03 10-K 0000320193-17-000070 |
| FY2018 | 15.86% | +9.56 pts | held | +10.86 pts | 2018-11-05 10-K 0000320193-18-000145 |
| FY2019 | -2.04% | -17.90 pts | broke | -7.04 pts | 2019-10-31 10-K 0000320193-19-000119 |
| FY2020 | 5.51% | +7.55 pts | held | +0.51 pts | 2020-10-30 10-K 0000320193-20-000096 |
| FY2021 | 33.26% | +27.75 pts | held | +28.26 pts | 2021-10-29 10-K 0000320193-21-000105 |
| FY2022 | 7.79% | -25.47 pts | held | +2.79 pts | 2022-10-28 10-K 0000320193-22-000108 |
| FY2023 | -2.80% | -10.59 pts | broke | -7.80 pts | 2023-11-03 10-K 0000320193-23-000106 |
| FY2024 | 2.02% | +4.82 pts | broke | -2.98 pts | 2024-11-01 10-K 0000320193-24-000123 |
| FY2025 | 6.43% | +4.41 pts | held | +1.43 pts | 2025-10-31 10-K 0000320193-25-000079 |
What the series does
- Largest single-year move. FY2020 to FY2021, from 5.51% to 33.26%, a change of +27.75 pts, filed 2021-10-29 under 0000320193-21-000105. The filing is the place to read why; this reports the size and nothing about the cause. The average move between filed years, in either direction, is 13.51%, which is the scale of ordinary movement to judge a threshold against.
- Largest single-year fall. FY2021 to FY2022, from 33.26% to 7.79%, a change of -25.47 pts.
- Closest to the line. FY2020, at 5.51% against 5%, which is 0.51 pts clear of it. A threshold set anywhere inside that gap would have produced a different answer for this company.
- Span of the filed series. Lowest in FY2023 at -2.80%, highest in FY2021 at 33.26%, averaging 8.04% across the years that could be tested.
- Where the answer would flip. Any line at or below -2.80% would have held in every year that could be tested. Anything above it would have broken in FY2023 at the latest.
- First filed year to newest. FY2017 at 6.30%, FY2025 at 6.43%, a net +0.13 pts across the window on file. The path between them is the column above, not a straight line between these two.
9 of 10 filed years could be tested. A missing figure counts as neither held nor broken.
How demanding 5% is
A convention, not an estimated boundary. Growth is compared between consecutive filed fiscal years, so the earliest year on file has no prior year and is never evaluated.
The threshold is the reader's to choose. This is what one would have done, not advice. We do not publish a peer distribution for this metric.
What this page leaves out
Evaluated over 10 filed fiscal years, FY2016 to FY2025. The figure could be computed in 9 of them; a year without it counts as neither held nor broken. Accounts filed before this company began tagging its statements in XBRL are not machine-readable and are outside this page. No share price is involved in any figure here, so nothing on this page is limited by the depth of our price archive.
Filings get mis-tagged and restated, so check a figure against the submission it names. Coverage for a company you own.
Related
- Ask this about your own company, at your own number
- The Coca-Cola Company against the same line. It would have broken in 5 of 9.
- The current ratio stays at or above 2.0, on the same filings. It would have broken in 10 of 10.
- Free cash flow stays above zero, on the same filings. It held in all 10 years on file.
- Net margin stays at or above 10 percent, on the same filings. It held in all 10 years on file.
- Operating margin stays at or above 15 percent, on the same filings. It held in all 10 years on file.